First, I view both approaches as publishing – one is a traditional model and the other is open access model.

Second, I might differ about the traditional ones being focussed on the reader. They are focussed on the subscriber. For many journals, I can not afford to be a subscriber. Sometimes only libraries can afford to be a subscriber. As a reader, I have to walk to a library or pay sometimes lots of money (e.g. $65) for an article.

While journals that are pseudo-open access (the association-based ones that provide access after 6-12 months) are much friendlier to readers. I can get an article for $5 or so.

These journals actually service the reader rather than the subscriber. And they do a pretty good job with the authors, who often happen to be members of the association doing the publishing. This amalgamation of authors, members, subscribers and readers all working with a pseudo open access model may the the way things shake out for much of scientific publishing.

Points 1 and 2 are just spot on for any sort of discussion. Filtering and servicing the customer are the two most important things a journal can do. open-source do not compete here. I think that they will be complimentary.

These new tools are obviously disruptive to scientific publishing and it will take a little time for all the wrinkles to work themselves out.

I always figured open-access scaled better than traditional because the costs and revenues are better known up front since the authors pay. Have ten time more acceptable papers then you have ten times more authors who have paid and ten times more published papers stored on servers you can buy with your ten-fold more money. They are not restricted to increasing subscriptions 10-fold, find 10 times more subscribers or ads as traditional publishers might.

Of course, accurately determining and distributing the costs is the key and something I don’t think open access has fully done. But in some settings I could see libraries helping somewhat.

I think there will be fewer journals overall but the total amount spent will be about the same, just consolidated differently between those that service authors and those that service readers.